Hunch. Germany's chancellor Friedrich Merz expects a choice by the end of the year, and EU leaders meet in mid-December.
The 18 December market resolves YES if the formal decision is dated 18 December 2026 or earlier, at the end of the EU leaders' summit. A name, a political agreement or a recommendation from finance ministers alone is NO, with POLITICO and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where EU leaders chose a new president of the European Central Bank. There have been four such choices since the bank opened in 1998. For each we noted who the newspapers named as the favourite when the race began, and whether that person got the job. (EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex)