History. 2 of 4 is an upper bound: in every past choice there was one favourite, now there are two level.
Hunch. This time there are two strong favourites, and Germany's earlier pick Joachim Nagel is now seen as unlikely, which leaves less room for a surprise name.
The surprise name market resolves YES if the European Council formally appoints anyone other than Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot, and NO if it appoints one of them or no one by 30 June 2027. It uses the same decision and backups as the Hernández de Cos market.
We looked for cases where EU leaders chose a new president of the European Central Bank. There have been four such choices since the bank opened in 1998. For each we noted who the newspapers named as the favourite when the race began, and whether that person got the job. (EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex; EUR-Lex)