History. All six opposition leaders held in jail before trial in Latin America since 2014 were still there 38 days after their arrest.
Hunch. On 23 October the same judge gave the campaign's finance chief an electronic tag instead of jail, so lighter rules are possible for Gonzalez too.
The jail market resolves YES if at the end of 29 November 2026, Ecuador time, Luisa Gonzalez is still in jail before trial, as shown by Ecuador's Attorney General's Office or court records and reported by Al Jazeera, Reuters or BBC. It resolves NO if before then she leaves jail in any form, including bail, home detention or an electronic tag.
We looked for cases where a court in a Latin American presidential republic kept an opposition leader in jail before trial: a party leader, a presidential hopeful, or the elected head of a capital, the largest city or a region. We found seven such arrests since 2014, of six people. None of them left jail within 38 days. The fastest left after 41 to 70 days.