History. One of six opposition leaders held in jail before trial in Latin America since 2014 left jail within 91 days of arrest. Five were still held then.
Hunch. On 23 October the same judge gave the campaign's finance chief an electronic tag instead of jail, so lighter rules are possible for Gonzalez too.
Resolves YES if by the end of 21 January 2027, Ecuador time, the day the prosecutors' 90-day investigation ends, Luisa Gonzalez has left jail in any form and is not back in jail that day. It resolves NO if she is in jail at the end of 21 January, with Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC as backups to the official records.
We looked for cases where a court in a Latin American presidential republic kept an opposition leader in jail before trial: a party leader, a presidential hopeful, or the elected head of a capital, the largest city or a region. We found seven such arrests since 2014, of six people. None of them left jail within 38 days. The fastest left after 41 to 70 days.