Pakistan reached the final: they topped the ICC tri-series table with three wins from three, and after Sri Lanka beat them on 27 October 2026 BBC Sport and The Guardian reported that the 31 October final is Pakistan against Sri Lanka, with England eliminated.
History. The host reached the final in seven of ten such series. Two of the three teams go through, so chance alone would give about two in three.
Hunch. Pakistan already beat Sri Lanka on 18 October, and two of the three teams go through to the final.
The final market resolves on the ICC table after the group games, at the latest after the last group match on 29 October 2026: YES if Pakistan are one of the two teams in the final, and NO if the final is England against Sri Lanka. If the two finalists are known earlier it resolves that day, with BBC Sport and The Guardian as the backups.
We looked for cases where a country hosted a men's three-team one-day series with a final, after winning its last two one-day series at home. We found ten such series from 2003 to 2015. Australia was the host in five of them. In five of the nine where all group results are known, the host won most of its group games against the two visitors, and all five times it was Australia.