Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market16 Oct 2026

Will a big site act on the porn ban in England and Wales by 20 Nov?

BinaryResolves 20 Nov 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch68%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 20 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The law passed in April and no big site has said a word in six months, while under the closest earlier law sites acted before it was even signed.

How this resolves

The market on any step by a big site resolves on the statements and rules pages of Pornhub, XVideos, xHamster, OnlyFans, X and Reddit, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian: YES if from 17 October to the end of 20 November 2026 one of them closes access for England and Wales or the UK, removes the banned kinds of porn, or changes its rules or features for these users because of the new crimes. If a site page cannot be opened, reports in two of BBC News, The Guardian and Reuters settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Four of five times a country made a kind of online content a crime, a big website closed a section, a feature or the whole service there within two weeks, and once no big site changed anything.

We looked for cases where a country made a kind of online content a crime, in a way that could also punish the sites that publish it. We found five such laws from 2018 to 2026, in the US, Australia, Hong Kong, Russia and Britain. In four of them a big website changed its service within two weeks. Most often it closed one part, such as a section or a feature.