Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market16 Oct 2026

Will a big site shut out all users in England and Wales by 20 Nov?

BinaryResolves 20 Nov 2026
History1 of 5
Hunch14%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 20 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The ban covers three kinds of content that a site can filter out, and it applies in England and Wales only, so shutting out the whole country would go further than the law asks.

How this resolves

The market on shutting out all users resolves on the same pages and reports: YES if by the end of 20 November 2026 one of the same six sites closes its whole service for users in England and Wales or the whole UK because of the new crimes, and NO if access stays open, even when some content is removed.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Four of five times a country made a kind of online content a crime, a big website closed a section, a feature or the whole service there within two weeks, and once no big site changed anything.

We looked for cases where a country made a kind of online content a crime, in a way that could also punish the sites that publish it. We found five such laws from 2018 to 2026, in the US, Australia, Hong Kong, Russia and Britain. In four of them a big website changed its service within two weeks. Most often it closed one part, such as a section or a feature.