Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market22 Oct 2026

Will EQT reach the minimum share it needs in its Qiagen offer?

BinaryResolves 10 Feb 2027
History83%
Hunch81%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 10 Feb 2027
Why these numbers

History. 5 of 6: PSI, NEXUS, Software AG, zooplus and EASY Software reached the minimum on the first try; STADA's first offer failed in 2017.

Hunch. Qiagen's boards wrote into the deal how they would treat funds that buy shares after the announcement to block it.

How this resolves

The Qiagen offer market resolves on EQT's result announcement on www.eqt-offer.com after the acceptance period ends, expected around 10 February 2027: YES if the shares offered and counted reach the minimum in force at the end, 50% plus one share unless EQT changes it, and NO if they do not, including when a rival offer wins. Qiagen's press releases, Reuters and the Financial Times settle it if the offer site is silent, and the market is void if no offer document is out by 31 January 2027.

The pattern behind it

5 of 6
In five of six buyout offers for German listed companies at 40% or more above the earlier price, the buyer reached its minimum share on the first try. The sixth, STADA in 2017, passed with a second offer.

We looked for cases where a buyout fund offered to buy all shares in a German listed company, needed a minimum share of the company, and paid at least 40% above the price before the first reports. We found six such offers from 2017 to 2025 in the regulator BaFin’s list. Each time we checked whether the buyer got its minimum by the end of the offer.