Hunch. The work programme already slots the act into the last quarter, but promises given as a season or as year end were kept only 2 times in 4, so the estimate sits below the six-in-eight record.
This market resolves on EUR-Lex, where the Commission's proposal appears as a COM document with its adoption date, and on the Commission press corner, which announces the adoption the same day; it resolves YES if a proposal for a regulation or directive named the Digital Fairness Act is dated on or before 31 December 2026, and a leaked draft, a consultation or a communication does not count. If EUR-Lex is slow to list it, the press corner release and two of Reuters, Politico Europe and the Guardian settle it.
Six of the last eight such promises became proposals that year. We looked at State of the Union speeches from 2010 to 2025 for promises to propose a new EU law within the same year. We checked whether the Commission formally proposed it within 31 days, within 90 days and by 31 December. The eight most recent promises came from six speeches, because in 2015 and 2016 the president made two at once. Three presidents made them: José Manuel Barroso, Jean-Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen in her first term. Today's promise comes from her second Commission, in office since December 2024. The rules for proposing a law have not changed in that time.