Hunch. Of the four season or year-end promises only one became a proposal inside 90 days, and the 2015 border guard law arrived on 15 December itself, so the estimate sits well below the five-in-eight record.
This market resolves on the same EUR-Lex and press corner records; it resolves YES if the proposal is dated on or before 15 December 2026, under the same rules on what counts. If EUR-Lex is slow to list it, the press corner release and two of Reuters, Politico Europe and the Guardian settle it.
Six of the last eight such promises became proposals that year. We looked at State of the Union speeches from 2010 to 2025 for promises to propose a new EU law within the same year. We checked whether the Commission formally proposed it within 31 days, within 90 days and by 31 December. The eight most recent promises came from six speeches, because in 2015 and 2016 the president made two at once. Three presidents made them: José Manuel Barroso, Jean-Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen in her first term. Today's promise comes from her second Commission, in office since December 2024. The rules for proposing a law have not changed in that time.