History. 8 of 10 texts named how long the furthest step could last, from 30 days to two years; the 2024 Commission paper and the border crossing closures of 2024 did not.
Hunch. The Greek plan backed by Germany and Austria asks only to pause asylum claims for a limited time, and the EU crisis law in force since July already caps such measures.
The time limit market resolves on the same text: YES if it names how long its furthest step may last, in days, weeks, months or an end date, and NO if it names no time or says only 'temporarily'. If no framework text is published by the end of 31 December 2026, the market is void, and Politico Europe and The Guardian settle it if the Commission pages cannot be read.
We looked for cases where an EU body wrote rules that let countries depart from the usual asylum or border rules when large numbers of people arrive suddenly. We found ten such texts from 2001 to 2024. Four shared people out or gave them group protection, two allowed checks at borders inside the EU, and one let countries close border crossings for a time. Two allowed slower asylum registration. One, a Commission paper with no law behind it, said countries could limit the right to claim asylum.