Hunch. On 13 October EU governments took the words 'by the end of the year' out of the draft summit text, at the request of countries including Italy and France.
The budget market resolves on the European Council conclusions at consilium.europa.eu: YES if the conclusions of a summit held by 31 December 2026 record a political agreement of the leaders on the 2028-2034 budget with a total amount, and NO if they only ask for a timely agreement, ask for more work or set a new date. The European Parliament's later vote is not needed, and Politico Europe and The Guardian settle it if the Council pages are blocked.
We looked for cases where EU leaders named a summit at which they would agree a long-term budget, in each budget round since 1992. We found five such rounds. Leaders agreed at the named summit twice, in 1992 and 1999.