Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market18 Oct 2026

Will an EU regulator open a case on a nudify app by 2 Jun 2027?

BinaryResolves 2 Jun 2027
History3 of 5
Hunch63%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 2 Jun 2027
Why these numbers

Hunch. The European Commission has been investigating X over sexual deepfakes made by Grok since 26 January 2026.

How this resolves

The regulator market resolves on the European Commission press corner and the websites of national regulators: YES if from 2 December 2026 to 2 June 2027 the EU AI Office, the Commission or a regulator in an EU country publicly opens an investigation, gives an order, blocks or fines a named app or site under the AI Act ban on fake nude images. Requests for information, letters, monitoring or action under another law count as NO, and The Guardian and BBC settle it if the official pages do not open.

The pattern behind it

3 of 5
Three of five times a new ban on a kind of online service started on a fixed date, a regulator opened an investigation within six months, and twice no regulator did.

We looked for cases where a law banned a whole kind of online service from a fixed date and a regulator had to enforce it, in the EU or in a country with its own online regulator. We found five such bans since 2025. In three of them a regulator opened its first investigation within six months. In the other two, nobody had by then.