Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Aug 2026

Does the government withdraw, correct or apologise for the 'in error' letters by 30 Sep?

BinaryResolves 30 Sep 2026
History2 of 3
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 30 September 2026 the Home Office had not withdrawn, corrected or apologised for the 'granted in error' letters; on 24 September Lord Hanson's written answer HL3398 defended the approach as consistent with the Withdrawal Agreement, and the3million has started a legal challenge instead.

Resolved 30 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The withdrawal market resolves YES only on a published GOV.UK statement, or a Hansard record, announcing withdrawal or correction of the letters or a formal apology, by 23:59 BST on 30 September 2026. Unattributed departmental briefing to journalists does not count.

The pattern behind it

2 of 3
Two of the three mass status errors since 2014 ended in a correction. It came within a day when the error was undisputed (2017), within months when political pressure broke the department's line (Windrush), and never when the Home Office stood by its evidence (TOEIC). Its current posture, defending the letters as lawful eligibility checks, sits closest to the third mode.

Three times since 2014 the Home Office has told large numbers of people that their immigration status rested on an error. What happened next depended mostly on whether the department kept defending its first decision, and less on how many people were hit.