Hunch. On 12 October the two sides still disagreed on how many young people the youth scheme would admit and what university fees they would pay.
The all-deals market resolves on GOV.UK, from the joint statement or Downing Street release of 20 November: YES if it says all three deals (food and drink, the youth scheme, and linking carbon trading) are signed, concluded or finished, and NO if any is only 'progress' or 'next steps', or if the summit does not take place that day. BBC News and The Guardian settle it if GOV.UK is silent.
We looked for cases where the EU and a partner set a summit date and named in advance the deals they would sign there. We found eight such summits since 2013, with partners from Ukraine to India. At five of them the named deals were signed on the day.