Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Oct 2026

Will the UK and EU agree a youth mobility deal on 20 Nov?

BinaryResolves 20 Nov 2026
History62%
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 20 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The two sides were still split on numbers and university fees for the youth scheme on 12 October, and the Downing Street summit notice did not mention it.

How this resolves

The youth scheme market resolves on GOV.UK from the same 20 November texts: YES if the youth scheme deal is signed, concluded or finished, and NO if there is only progress or next steps, or no summit that day. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.

The pattern behind it

5 of 8
Five of eight times the EU and a partner named deals before a summit, they signed them on the day. Twice the signing came 3 and 28 days late, and once it failed.

We looked for cases where the EU and a partner set a summit date and named in advance the deals they would sign there. We found eight such summits since 2013, with partners from Ukraine to India. At five of them the named deals were signed on the day.