Hunch. The late signings before came after one region or country stopped a finished text for a few weeks, while on 12 October the youth scheme terms were still open.
The December market resolves YES if by 18 December 2026 an official UK or EU release or the joint statement says all three deals are signed, concluded or finished, and NO if any is still open on that day. GOV.UK is the main source, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where the EU and a partner set a summit date and named in advance the deals they would sign there. We found eight such summits since 2013, with partners from Ukraine to India. At five of them the named deals were signed on the day.