Hunch. Leaders asked the Commission for a concrete proposal and have two summits before the year ends, but the same countries still block the frozen Russian assets.
The 2027 money market resolves on the European Council conclusions published at data.consilium.europa.eu: YES if by the end of 18 December 2026 the conclusions of the summit on 26 November or on 17 and 18 December, or a decision taken there, name both a source and a sum of money for Ukraine in 2027. It is NO if leaders put it off again or name only one of the two, and Politico Europe and The Guardian settle it if the Council pages cannot be read.
We looked for cases where EU leaders put off a decision on money for a country in need at one summit and came back to it at the next. We found six such delays from 2010 to 2025, five of them about Ukraine. Two of them, in October and December 2023, were about the same €50bn plan.