Hunch. On 27 October Fleetwood knocked Premier League champions Arsenal out on penalties at their own ground, where Everton must now play.
The quarter-final market resolves on the EFL result of Fleetwood Town v Everton, played in the week starting 14 December 2026: YES if Everton go through, including on penalties, and NO if Fleetwood go through. If the EFL moves the game, it resolves on the new match day, with BBC Sport and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where a club from the top league in England reached the League Cup quarter-finals and was drawn against a side at least two leagues below it. We found ten such clubs from 1998-99 to 2025-26. Two of them won the cup that season: Manchester City in 2020 and Manchester United in 2023. The other eight went out, three in the quarter-final and five in the semi-final. (BBC Sport; BBC Sport)