Hunch. Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are already out, so Everton could reach the final without meeting Manchester City or Liverpool.
The final market resolves after the semi-final second legs in the week starting 1 February 2027: YES if Everton are one of the two finalists on the EFL Carabao Cup page, and NO if they go out earlier, on the day they go out. BBC Sport and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where a club from the top league in England reached the League Cup quarter-finals and was drawn against a side at least two leagues below it. We found ten such clubs from 1998-99 to 2025-26. Two of them won the cup that season: Manchester City in 2020 and Manchester United in 2023. The other eight went out, three in the quarter-final and five in the semi-final. (BBC Sport; BBC Sport)