Hunch. Venezuela's acting president Delcy Rodríguez said on 9 November that she wants the memorandum to become concrete agreements quickly.
The ExxonMobil deal market resolves on posts of Venezuela's Ministry of Hydrocarbons and ExxonMobil releases: YES if by 23:59 New York time on 31 December 2026 ExxonMobil or a company it controls signs a binding agreement with Venezuela, PDVSA or another party able to grant it a share, concession or similar right to explore for, develop or produce crude oil at a site in Venezuela. The 9 November memorandum, other non-binding papers, talks, licences or permits alone and gas-only deals do not count, and if the official pages cannot be opened, two reports from The Guardian, Al Jazeera, The New York Times or Reuters decide.
We looked for cases where an energy company signed a non-binding paper with a government about future access to its oil or gas, while a big foreign power pushed its own companies to invest there and decided who could go in. We found five such papers, all in Venezuela in 2026, two of them signed by BP. (Venezuela Ministry of Hydrocarbons; bp; Repsol; El País; Continental Resources; Venezuela Ministry of Hydrocarbons; The Guardian)