History. No count: every past paper starts from a memorandum already signed, and this market asks whether one will be signed at all. Signal points are counted from 50.
Hunch. ExxonMobil, which Venezuela also still owes money for taking its oil assets, signed a memorandum on 9 November, so that debt did not block a first paper.
The ConocoPhillips market resolves on posts of Venezuela's Ministry of Hydrocarbons and ConocoPhillips releases: YES if from 10 November to 23:59 New York time on 31 December 2026 ConocoPhillips or a company it controls signs a memorandum or any other agreement, binding or not, with the Venezuelan government, its oil ministry or PDVSA about oil or gas in Venezuela. Meetings, statements of interest, deals only about paying old court awards, service contracts and oil purchases do not count, and The Guardian or Al Jazeera confirm, with two of The Guardian, Al Jazeera and Reuters deciding if the official pages cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where an energy company signed a non-binding paper with a government about future access to its oil or gas, while a big foreign power pushed its own companies to invest there and decided who could go in. We found five such papers, all in Venezuela in 2026, two of them signed by BP. (Venezuela Ministry of Hydrocarbons; bp; Repsol; El País; Continental Resources; Venezuela Ministry of Hydrocarbons; The Guardian)