Hunch. Nigel Farage told supporters in Doncaster on 1 October that 'today is when our general election campaign starts'.
The leader market resolves on BBC News politics reports: YES if on 31 December 2026 Nigel Farage is still leader of Reform UK and has not said he will leave; NO if before then he has left or said he will leave. If BBC reports do not open, The Guardian and the Reform UK website settle it together.
We looked for cases where a British party in opposition fell in national polls, losing its place or at least 5 points from its best level of the past year. We then checked if its leader was still in the job 61 days later. We found four such times, from 2019 to 2025. Three of them came in 2019, and one of the leaders was Nigel Farage himself.