Hunch. Reform insiders said on 23 October that they expect the standards verdict to go against Nigel Farage, a risk none of the four earlier leaders faced.
The removal market resolves on BBC News politics reports: YES if by 31 December 2026 a Reform UK body or its MPs remove Farage as leader by a vote, or he leaves or says he will leave after senior Reform figures, named by the BBC or The Guardian, publicly ask him to go. If he stays, or leaves by his own choice without such public demands, it resolves NO, with The Guardian and the Reform UK website as backups.
We looked for cases where a British party in opposition fell in national polls, losing its place or at least 5 points from its best level of the past year. We then checked if its leader was still in the job 61 days later. We found four such times, from 2019 to 2025. Three of them came in 2019, and one of the leaders was Nigel Farage himself.