Hunch. Reform insiders said on 23 October that they will appeal any finding against Nigel Farage, which could make the process drag on for months.
The ruling market resolves on the publications page of the Committee on Standards at parliament.uk: YES if by 31 December 2026 a ruling of Commissioner Daniel Greenberg on the £5m gift from Christopher Harborne to Farage is published, by the commissioner or in a committee report; NO if not. If parliament.uk does not open, The Guardian and BBC News together settle it.
We looked for cases where a British party in opposition fell in national polls, losing its place or at least 5 points from its best level of the past year. We then checked if its leader was still in the job 61 days later. We found four such times, from 2019 to 2025. Three of them came in 2019, and one of the leaders was Nigel Farage himself.