Hunch. The committee advising the FIFA Council is mostly from countries loyal to Gianni Infantino, who created the prize, so the Council could still put off a decision.
The any change market resolves on the FIFA Council decisions of 16 December 2026 on inside.fifa.com: YES if the council scraps the peace prize, suspends or postpones it, or changes its name, rules or how the winner is chosen, and NO if it keeps the prize as it is or takes no decision. If the meeting moves, it resolves on the new meeting up to 31 December 2026. The Guardian and BBC Sport settle it if FIFA's pages are silent.
We looked for cases where the board of an organisation decided the future of its own prize after a public row about the prize, its winner or the way it was chosen. We found nine such decisions from 2010 to 2026. In eight the board changed something. Four times it paused or cancelled the prize for a year, three times it changed the name, symbol or rules, and once it scrapped the prize for good. Once it kept the prize as it was.