Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Oct 2026

Will FIFA scrap its Peace Prize for good on 16 December?

BinaryResolves 16 Dec 2026
History11%
Hunch12%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 16 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 1 of 9: only the German Echo music prize was scrapped for good at the first decision.

Hunch. Several FIFA Council members demanded on 15 October that the prize be abolished, but a full scrap would embarrass Gianni Infantino before his re-election.

How this resolves

The scrap for good market resolves on the same council decisions: YES only if the council ends the peace prize for good, and NO if the prize is kept, changed, suspended or postponed for a round, or if no decision is taken. The Guardian and BBC Sport settle it if FIFA's pages are silent.

The pattern behind it

8 of 9
In eight of nine public rows over a prize, the board in charge scrapped, paused or changed the prize at its decision, and once it kept the prize as it was.

We looked for cases where the board of an organisation decided the future of its own prize after a public row about the prize, its winner or the way it was chosen. We found nine such decisions from 2010 to 2026. In eight the board changed something. Four times it paused or cancelled the prize for a year, three times it changed the name, symbol or rules, and once it scrapped the prize for good. Once it kept the prize as it was.