Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Oct 2026

Will FIFA keep its Peace Prize but change its rules on 16 December?

BinaryResolves 16 Dec 2026
History33%
Hunch49%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 16 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 9: the librarians' medal, the World Fantasy statue and the Brit Awards shortlist were changed and kept.

Hunch. A FIFA Council member told the Guardian the most likely outcome is a prize for a football figure, with politicians barred from winning it.

How this resolves

The new rules market resolves on the same council decisions: YES if the council keeps the prize for future years and changes its name, rules or how the winner is chosen, such as barring politicians, even if no prize is given in 2026, and NO otherwise. The Guardian and BBC Sport settle it if FIFA's pages are silent.

The pattern behind it

8 of 9
In eight of nine public rows over a prize, the board in charge scrapped, paused or changed the prize at its decision, and once it kept the prize as it was.

We looked for cases where the board of an organisation decided the future of its own prize after a public row about the prize, its winner or the way it was chosen. We found nine such decisions from 2010 to 2026. In eight the board changed something. Four times it paused or cancelled the prize for a year, three times it changed the name, symbol or rules, and once it scrapped the prize for good. Once it kept the prize as it was.