History. 4 of 5 FIFA races with a sitting president where someone said before the deadline that they would run: at least one rival made the list (1974, 2002, 2011, 2015; not 2019). All seven races: 4 of 7.
Hunch. BBC Sport reported on 6 November that Kozo Tashima has had good replies from associations he asked, and Japan's football association fully backs him.
The rival market resolves on FIFA's first media release that lists the candidates for president, on inside.fifa.com: YES if by 30 November 2026, 23:59 Zurich time, it names at least one person other than Gianni Infantino as a candidate, in words such as "proposed in due time and form", and NO if it names Infantino alone. If FIFA publishes no list by then the market is void, and if the FIFA page does not open, The Guardian and Al Jazeera reports of the list settle it.
We looked for cases where a sitting FIFA president ran for a new term, and asked how many rivals made FIFA's official list of candidates once nominations closed. We found seven such races from 1974 to 2023. Since 2013 a rival has needed five member associations behind them. Before that, one was enough.