History. 3 of 5 FIFA races with a sitting president where someone said before the deadline that they would run: at least one of them did not make the list (2011, 2015, 2019). Where two or more had declared: 2 of 2.
Hunch. BBC Sport reported on 6 November that Ramon Vega has failed three times to get five associations, and he will not name those he says back him now.
The missing rival market resolves on the same FIFA release: YES if anyone who, by 18 November, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, BBC or Sky Sports report as saying they will run against Infantino (now Kozo Tashima and Ramon Vega) is not named in it by 30 November, and NO if all of them are named. Dropping out on or before 18 November counts as YES even if no list follows, a later eligibility check changes nothing, and otherwise the market is void if FIFA publishes no list by 30 November.
We looked for cases where a sitting FIFA president ran for a new term, and asked how many rivals made FIFA's official list of candidates once nominations closed. We found seven such races from 1974 to 2023. Since 2013 a rival has needed five member associations behind them. Before that, one was enough.