Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market22 Oct 2026

If FIFA picks a 2030 US World Cup channel by 31 Dec, will Fox lose?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
History56%
Hunch67%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 5 of 9: the holder lost the rights in Spain 2026 (Netflix), Commonwealth Games 2025, Australia's Olympics 2023, US Euros 2021 (Fox) and US World Cups 2011 (Fox, Telemundo); it kept them in four sales.

Hunch. On 22 October FIFA said it would rather sell English and Spanish rights together, and the Spanish channel Telemundo belongs to NBCUniversal.

How this resolves

The Fox market resolves on FIFA's media releases: if FIFA names the holder of the English-language US rights to the 2030 World Cup by the end of 31 December, YES if that is not Fox and NO if Fox has them, alone or with a partner. If FIFA names no winner by then the market is void, and Reuters and Variety reports settle it if FIFA's page is silent.

The pattern behind it

5 of 9
In five of nine sales of TV rights to big tournaments since 2011, the channel that had them lost them, including ESPN to Fox in the US twice. Four times it kept them, three of those in Britain.

We looked for cases where the owner of a big tournament, such as a World Cup or the Olympics, sold the TV rights in one country without simply renewing the deal with the channel that had them. We counted nine such sales since 2011, by six different sellers in four countries. Each time we checked whether the channel that had the rights kept them.