Byron Donalds won the Florida governor race on 3 November 2026, called by the Associated Press with about 50.0% to David Jolly's 48.7% and 99% of votes counted, as BBC News and The Guardian report; the Florida Division of Elections results site does not yet list the 2026 general election, so BBC News and The Guardian settle it.
History. 2 of 4, an even split; History at 50 keeps this market out of the public accuracy count.
Hunch. No Democrat has won a Florida governor's election since 1994 or any statewide race there since 2018, The Guardian reported in August.
The winner market resolves on the official Florida Division of Elections result and the Associated Press count, checked on 4 November 2026: YES if Byron Donalds wins, NO if another candidate wins. If counting goes on, it waits for the official result; BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where the president's party had won at least three governor elections in a row in a US state, the governor was not on the ballot in a midterm, the president's party also ran Congress, and pay was rising more slowly than prices. We found five since 1966 and could check four: three on one day in 1978 and one in 2022.