Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market31 Aug 2026

Will Nottingham Forest sign a central midfielder between 30 August 2026 and the 23:00 BST deadline on 1 September 2026?

BinaryResolves 1 Sep 2026
Hunch32%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Forest's only arrival in the window was right wing-back Daniel Munoz; their central-midfield replacement for Elliot Anderson, Xaver Schlager, had arrived from RB Leipzig on a free in July (Sky Sports).

Resolved 1 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the position given in Nottingham Forest's own announcement, or in the Premier League squad list published for the 2026/27 season; YES if at least one qualifying signing in the same window is listed as a midfielder. Wing-backs and full-backs do not count. If that source has not published in time, Sky Sports and ESPN settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
All four qualifying cases since 2023 ended with a senior replacement signed inside the same window, and the window and the full record are the same four. Four clears the floor for publishing a number at all, but a unanimous four still carries a wide margin of error: the honest reading is that the direction is well established and the strength is not measurable from this sample. The mechanism is straightforward. A club that sells in the summer cannot spend the money again until January, faces its own supporters immediately, and has a head coach who has just lost a starter. Forest have already answered the first half of that, with four arrivals since the Anderson sale was announced. The open question at publication is the last 34 hours, which is the only part the markets can still ask about.

All four clubs signed a replacement in time. We looked for Premier League clubs since 2023 that sold a regular starter for a fee in the summer, with at least two weeks of the window left. We checked whether they signed a first-team player for the same position before that window closed. We left out January windows and sales on the last day. Four clubs fit, and all four are below.