Does Nottingham Forest sign a senior central midfielder before the summer window shuts on 1 September 2026?
BinaryResolves 1 Sep 2026
History4 of 4
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Xaver Schlager arrived from RB Leipzig on a free in July 2026 as the central-midfield replacement for Elliot Anderson, inside the same window (Sky Sports, 1 Sep 2026).
Resolved 1 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The replacement market resolves on Forest's own transfer announcements across the 2026 summer window, with the Premier League and Sky Sports transfer records settling any dispute. A senior central midfielder signed at any point in the window resolves YES; loans out and departures do not count.
The pattern behind it
4 of 4
All four qualifying cases since 2023 ended with a senior replacement signed inside the same window, and the window and the full record are the same four. Four clears the floor for publishing a number at all, but a unanimous four still carries a wide margin of error: the honest reading is that the direction is well established and the strength is not measurable from this sample. The mechanism is straightforward. A club that sells in the summer cannot spend the money again until January, faces its own supporters immediately, and has a head coach who has just lost a starter. Forest have already answered the first half of that, with four arrivals since the Anderson sale was announced. The open question at publication is the last 34 hours, which is the only part the markets can still ask about.
All four clubs signed a replacement in time. We looked for Premier League clubs since 2023 that sold a regular starter for a fee in the summer, with at least two weeks of the window left. We checked whether they signed a first-team player for the same position before that window closed. We left out January windows and sales on the last day. Four clubs fit, and all four are below.
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