Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Sep 2026

Does Forgotten Island lose less than 40% in its second weekend?

BinaryResolves 5 Oct 2026
History67%
Hunch61%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Box Office Mojo reports Forgotten Island took $7,201,655 in the US on 2 to 4 October 2026, a 44.6% fall from $13,007,005 and below the $7,804,203 line; The Numbers shows the same figure.

Resolved 5 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 6. Kubo, Elemental, Turbo and Hoppers fell 35.5% to 37.8%. Abominable fell 42.2% and Elio 50%.

Hunch. The new wide releases on 2 October are all for older audiences, which helps, but Forgotten Island opened in fewer cinemas than five of the six earlier films, so cinemas have less reason to keep its screens (Box Office Mojo, 28 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The second-weekend market resolves on Box Office Mojo's actual figures for Forgotten Island, published on Monday 5 October: YES if the film takes more than $7,804,203 in the US from 2 to 4 October, which is a fall of less than 40% from $13,007,005. If the page is late, the weekend reports in Variety and Deadline settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
In 4 of 6 films the second weekend fell by less than 40%: Kubo, Elemental, Turbo and Hoppers. Abominable fell 42.2% and Elio 50%. None lost more than half.

We looked for cases where a big studio's original animated film cost at least $50m, opened in US cinemas to less than a third of its budget and still got an A from audiences, with no holiday in its first two weekends. We found six since 2013. Three of them were Pixar films.