Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Sep 2026

Will Forgotten Island reach $45.5m in US cinemas by 20 December?

BinaryResolves 21 Dec 2026
History83%
Hunch68%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 21 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 5 of 6. Elemental, Turbo, Kubo, Hoppers and Elio got there; Elio only just, in its 11th weekend. Abominable stopped at under three times.

Hunch. Forgotten Island meets two new animated family films on 9 October, Avatar Aang and Treasure Trekkers, and none of the earlier films met two at once in that weekend (Box Office Mojo calendar).

How this resolves

The US total market resolves on Box Office Mojo's page for Forgotten Island on 21 December: YES if the total to date reaches $45,524,518 by the weekend of 18 to 20 December. Variety and Deadline box office reports are the backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
In 4 of 6 films the second weekend fell by less than 40%: Kubo, Elemental, Turbo and Hoppers. Abominable fell 42.2% and Elio 50%. None lost more than half.

We looked for cases where a big studio's original animated film cost at least $50m, opened in US cinemas to less than a third of its budget and still got an A from audiences, with no holiday in its first two weekends. We found six since 2013. Three of them were Pixar films.