Box Office Mojo's actual figures show Forgotten Island took $4,703,380 on 9 to 11 October against $7,201,655 on 2 to 4 October, a fall of 34.7%, not more than 45%; Deadline's weekend report also put the fall at about 38%.
History. 2 of 6. Abominable fell 49.1% and Turbo 54.7%, both against a new animated film. Elio fell 44.5%, the other three less.
Hunch. Avatar Aang: The Last Airbender and Treasure Trekkers both open wide on 9 October, and in the earlier films a new animated rival in that weekend came with the bigger falls (Box Office Mojo calendar).
The third-weekend market resolves on Box Office Mojo's actual figures for 9 to 11 October, published on Monday 12 October: YES if the three-day takings fall by more than 45% from 2 to 4 October. The four-day holiday figure does not count, and Variety and Deadline reports are the backup.
We looked for cases where a big studio's original animated film cost at least $50m, opened in US cinemas to less than a third of its budget and still got an A from audiences, with no holiday in its first two weekends. We found six since 2013. Three of them were Pixar films.