Hunch. The Assembly's own seat table on 27 October shows 193 left-wing MPs and 381 others, so a 150-vote gap needs nearly every other MP in the room voting no.
The gap market counts only if the National Assembly holds a deciding vote on the bill in the sittings that start on 19 November 2026, and is void otherwise. It resolves YES if the vote page on the Assembly website shows a gap of 150 or more between votes for and against, on either side, and Politico Europe and The Guardian decide together if the site does not open.
We looked for cases where a parliament voted on a text that gives legal status to migrants who live and work in the country without papers. We count a vote as wide if one side won by 150 votes or more. We found five such votes since 1999, in Spain, France and Poland. Two were on the same French law, eight days apart in December 2023.