History. No count from the cases: every case is a vote that took place, so they cannot show how often a scheduled bill reaches its vote. This question comes from what the Glucksmann campaign wants.
Hunch. The Assembly agenda of 27 October puts the bill fourth of nine on 19 November, behind two second readings and a fuel price bill.
The vote market resolves YES if, in the sittings that start on 19 November 2026 (Paris time, including a night sitting past midnight), the Assembly holds an open vote on the whole bill or adopts a motion to reject it. A delay, an unfinished debate, a withdrawn bill or votes only on single articles resolve NO, as shown on the Assembly website and confirmed by Politico Europe or The Guardian.
We looked for cases where a parliament voted on a text that gives legal status to migrants who live and work in the country without papers. We count a vote as wide if one side won by 150 votes or more. We found five such votes since 1999, in Spain, France and Poland. Two were on the same French law, eight days apart in December 2023.