History. No count from the cases: in every case the text came from a government or a citizens' initiative, never from a group without a majority, so the four of five texts that won do not measure this bill.
Hunch. The Assembly seat table of 27 October gives the left 193 MPs, against 185 for the right and far right and 162 for the Macron camp.
The pass market resolves YES if the Assembly adopts the bill in a vote on the whole text in the sittings that start on 19 November 2026, as shown on its vote page. A rejected text, an adopted motion to reject it, or no vote on the whole text that day resolve NO, with Politico Europe and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where a parliament voted on a text that gives legal status to migrants who live and work in the country without papers. We count a vote as wide if one side won by 150 votes or more. We found five such votes since 1999, in Spain, France and Poland. Two were on the same French law, eight days apart in December 2023.