Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market27 Oct 2026

If MPs vote on 19 Nov, does any MP in Macron's party back the bill?

BinaryResolves 19 Nov 2026
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 19 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from the cases: the cases do not show how each group voted. This question comes from what the Glucksmann campaign wants the vote to show.

Hunch. Politico reported on 27 October that the Glucksmann campaign wants this vote to split Macron's MPs from his 2022 voters, and his party's group has 90 MPs.

How this resolves

The Macron camp market counts only if a deciding vote on the bill takes place in the sittings that start on 19 November 2026, and is void otherwise. It resolves YES if the group table on that vote page lists at least one MP of Ensemble pour la République, the group of Macron's party, as voting for, with Politico Europe and The Guardian as the backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 5
Three of five times a parliament voted on legal status for people without papers, one side won by 150 votes or more. In Spain in 1999 and France in 2023 the gap was 37 votes and 5 votes.

We looked for cases where a parliament voted on a text that gives legal status to migrants who live and work in the country without papers. We count a vote as wide if one side won by 150 votes or more. We found five such votes since 1999, in Spain, France and Poland. Two were on the same French law, eight days apart in December 2023.