Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Oct 2026

Will Laurent Nuñez leave as France's interior minister by 6 Nov?

BinaryResolves 6 Nov 2026
Hunch14%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 6 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Macron refused Nuñez's resignation on 19 October and gave him the job of finding new methods against rioters.

How this resolves

The minister market resolves on statements of the Élysée Palace and the decree on the government in the Journal officiel: YES if by the end of 6 November 2026 the resignation of Laurent Nuñez is officially accepted or another person is named interior minister. If Nuñez is still in office on 6 November, even in a caretaker government, it resolves NO, and BBC News and The Guardian are the backups.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
In four of eight waves of riots since 1985, France declared a state of emergency, and in four it did not. All four came within 12 days of the first night of violence.

We looked for cases where riots hit France or one of its overseas territories under the 1955 law on states of emergency, and officials used local curfews or spoke of an emergency. We found eight such waves of riots since 1985. Five were in overseas territories, and five came while Emmanuel Macron was president.