History. Of four states of emergency over riots since 1985, parliament extended one before its first 12 days ran out: 2005. New Caledonia in 1985 got a new law on day 13, after a short gap.
Hunch. The only past emergency over riots in mainland France, in 2005, was extended by parliament within its first 12 days.
Resolves YES if a state of emergency declared under the first market by 6 November 2026 is extended by a law passed before the end of its 12th day, and NO if it ends or is lifted without such a law. If no state of emergency is declared by the end of 6 November, the market is void, and the Journal officiel, the National Assembly and BBC News and The Guardian settle it.
We looked for cases where riots hit France or one of its overseas territories under the 1955 law on states of emergency, and officials used local curfews or spoke of an emergency. We found eight such waves of riots since 1985. Five were in overseas territories, and five came while Emmanuel Macron was president.