The Budget of 28 October 2026 only extends the 5p cut and delays the RPI rise to 1 July 2027, keeping the main rate at its current level and setting no rate below 52.95p, the Budget 2026 document on GOV.UK shows.
History. 2 of 8 cases: 2011 and 2022, both in a week of record pump prices.
Hunch. The room under the borrowing rule has shrunk from £23.6bn to about £12bn by KPMG's estimate, which makes a cut costlier than another freeze.
Resolves on the fuel duty rates in the Budget documents on gov.uk, checked at 10:00 on 29 October 2026: YES if the main rate for petrol and diesel is set below 52.95p a litre from any date, while a freeze, a delay or a VAT cut on fuel alone resolves NO. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup, and the market is void if the Budget moves from 28 October.
We looked for cases where a UK Chancellor had to decide, in a planned Budget or statement, on a fuel duty rise when a rise had already been put off in the past two years. In each, pump prices were within 5% of their highest ever and money was tight. We found eight, from 2010 to 2022. The same Treasury decided all of them, and six were George Osborne's.