Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Sep 2026

Will Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight in Cardiff on 11 December?

BinaryResolves 12 Dec 2026
History62%
Hunch58%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 12 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 5 of 8. Five of the eight fights went ahead as announced. Two fell through late when a fighter was cut or ill, one the day after the date was named.

Hunch.

  • For: Joshua's contract kept the fight in Britain, and both sides have now agreed on Cardiff.
  • For: In none of the eight fights did money or the venue stop the fight once the date was named.
  • Against: Joshua was knocked down twice in the first round of his July fight.
  • Against: A cut in sparring pushed Fury's fight with Usyk back by three months in 2024.
How this resolves

The market resolves on Sky Sports or BBC Sport reports on 12 December 2026: YES if the Fury v Joshua main fight starts at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff between 6pm on 11 December and noon on 12 December, London time. A different date or venue, or a cancellation, is NO, with the Guardian and ESPN as backup sources.

The pattern behind it

5 of 8
In 5 of 8 fights the boxers met on the date and at the place first announced. Two fell through in the last two weeks, when a fighter was cut or ill. A third fell through the day after the date was named.

Five of eight Saudi-paid fights went ahead as announced. We looked for heavyweight fights between two men who had each held a world title, signed by both sides, with the date and place named more than two months ahead, and paid for by Saudi Arabia's entertainment authority. We found eight from 2019 to 2025. The same backer paid for all of them, and Joshua, Usyk and Fury appear several times.