Hunch. The White House said on 23 November 2025 that it objected to any G20 leaders' declaration, and the US now chairs the summit.
The declaration market resolves on the US G20 presidency site g20.org and on whitehouse.gov: YES if by the end of 15 December 2026 the summit adopts a document in the name of the leaders, whether it is called a declaration, a communiqué or a joint statement, and NO if there is only a chair's statement or summary, or nothing. If the summit is moved or cancelled the market is void, and The Guardian, Al Jazeera and BBC News confirm the result.
We looked for cases where a G20 host's finance ministers' meeting ended without a joint statement and the host then held the leaders' summit. We found four such summits, from 2022 to 2025. All four produced a leaders' declaration. In three, no attending member stayed outside the declaration as a whole. That is not the same as accepting every paragraph: Argentina signed the 2024 Rio text with reservations, but stayed outside the 2025 text.