Hunch. The White House objected on 23 November 2025 to any G20 leaders' declaration, and Vladimir Putin's invitation to Miami gives the other members a new reason to hold back from a joint text.
The every-member market resolves on the text of the declaration on g20.org: YES if a declaration is adopted and no member present at the summit at any level is named in the text, by the presidency or by two of The Guardian, Al Jazeera and BBC News as refusing to back it, and NO if there is no declaration or any member present stays outside it, as Argentina did in 2025. A member that was not invited or did not come does not count, and if the summit is moved or cancelled the market is void.
We looked for cases where a G20 host's finance ministers' meeting ended without a joint statement and the host then held the leaders' summit. We found four such summits, from 2022 to 2025. All four produced a leaders' declaration. In three, no attending member stayed outside the declaration as a whole. That is not the same as accepting every paragraph: Argentina signed the 2024 Rio text with reservations, but stayed outside the 2025 text.