The Georgia Secretary of State's unofficial results, with all 159 counties reporting on 4 November 2026, give Jon Ossoff 59.02% of the vote (2,445,285 votes) in the 3 November Senate race, more than 9 points above 50%; BBC News reports his win.
History. In four of the five such races the sitting senator won more than half on election day; in 2002 Max Cleland won 45.9% and lost to Saxby Chambliss, who won 52.7%.
Hunch. On 9 October the Guardian wrote that Jon Ossoff leads and Mike Collins is trying to cut into that lead.
The Ossoff market resolves on the same official results: YES if Jon Ossoff wins more than 50% of the votes, NO if he wins 50% or less. If his share is within 0.5 points of 50% it waits for the certified results, with The Guardian and BBC News as backups.
We looked for cases where a sitting Georgia senator ran again while his party did not hold the presidency, in a year with no presidential election. We found five such races from 1974 to 2010 in the official results. Each time one candidate won more than half the votes on election day, and there was no runoff.