Hunch. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 18 October the 60 days are to work out the right mix of sanctions and tariffs.
The sanctions market resolves on the White House presidential actions page and the Federal Register: YES if by the end of 15 December 2026, Washington time, the President or the Secretary of State officially ends the waiver for at least one Graham Act sanction or tariff, even if it starts later, and NO if all the waivers still apply on 15 December. A statement of intent without such a document, or a new law from Congress without action by the government, counts as NO, and The Guardian and BBC settle it if the official pages are silent.
We looked for cases where a US president, or a minister for him, paused sanctions or tariffs that a law of Congress required, with an end date named in the law or by the government. We found six such pauses since 1996. Four were under the same 1996 Cuba law, by four presidents in turn. One was on Iran oil sanctions in 2017 and one on Syria in 2025. None ended with sanctions brought in by the first end date.