History. Of six times since 2015 that the US government eased sanctions or a penalty against the wishes of lawmakers, the House or Senate passed a measure within 60 days to bring it back twice, on ZTE in 2018 and Rusal in 2019. Neither became law.
Hunch. The Senate still has to pass this year's defence bill, the same kind of bill Congress used to push back on the ZTE deal in 2018.
The Congress market resolves on congress.gov: YES if by the end of 15 December 2026 the House of Representatives or the Senate passes in a floor vote a bill, resolution, amendment or defence bill with a clause that ends the waivers of the 16 October order or requires the Graham Act sanctions or tariffs. A vote that fails, a letter or a committee vote counts as NO, and The Guardian and BBC are the backups.
We looked for cases where a US president, or a minister for him, paused sanctions or tariffs that a law of Congress required, with an end date named in the law or by the government. We found six such pauses since 1996. Four were under the same 1996 Cuba law, by four presidents in turn. One was on Iran oil sanctions in 2017 and one on Syria in 2025. None ended with sanctions brought in by the first end date.